Thursday, November 15, 2012

Diabetes Awareness Day

Sydney Day 4


Going further down, you get a wonderful bakery, a snazzy Northern Indian restaurant etc... its all fun stuff walking and and down the street on the beach.

Staying near the beach is very cool, you get to enjoy the life as beach bums. Wake up late or early, stumble down to the beach area for breakfast and read the papers, watch the pretty people go past. Whether its Coogee, Bronte, Bondi or Manly beaches, its the same drift. The shops are all a lot of fun and presents great variety.



















Its only about 100 meters but its exciting kind of shops. Here you have a bottler (liquor retail store), a surf shop and SushiGOI, a popular sushi place much like Sakae Sushi.



Next to it you have a cafe, and another cafe and then the very fresh Coogee Fish shop, great fish and chips. I kinda counted that there were no less than 16 cafes in that 100 meters.


My morning comfort food in Sydney, bacon and crispy bacon roll.




Well, its not ever going to be a touristy type of travel blog since I have been here for a long time and lived and studied here for over 10 years. Hence you are not getting the Opera House, Taronga Zoo stuff. But the Harbour Bridge is very cool, this is a video of me driving over it. Visitors without any fear of heights should do the Harbour Bridge climb.




I do a lot of country side driving when I am in Sydney. You can fit the entire Europe map into Australia, its a huge place. The country side is a lot more soothing. Drove to Gosford, another hour's drive from Sydney. Relaxing and wonderful weather to boot. Yes, they happened to be having races there yesterday, up close and personal with the horsies as well.



The very relaxing drive down to Gosford ...



Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Sydney Day 3



Its the third day, taking things slow now. Woke up late, decided to drive to Hawkesbury Turf Club which was having its race day today. Its about 65km away and a nice leisurely drive through the suburbs. 











In Malaysia there are just 3 turf clubs. Two in HK. In the state of NSW alone, there are 4 city tracks (bigger races, Canterbury, Rosehill, Randwick and Warwick Farm) and 4 provincial tracks (Illawara, Hawkesbury, Newcastle, Gosford). They really love their racing in Australia. Now multiply that with the other states, thats why you have horse racing everyday, plus greyhounds and harness (trotting).

Its very nice to drive to a provincial track, the people are very laid back, everyone comes dressed casual, drink lots of beer and wine and families wander around the track having picnics. Plus you get to see real horses racing and you can have a bet as well. You get to see more country folks at provincial tracks and its kinda nice.




















Prior to that, headed to Marrickville (about 25 minutes from the city, an enclave of Aussies from Vietnam) to get my fill of pho. They do this very nicely thanks to great tasting OZ beef. Side note, OZ chicken dishes are tasteless, take anything with chicken its tasteless due to the "healthy feed" for the chicken.





If you visit Sydney, you will inevitably visit Star City, the casino. There are plenty of good places to eat there. The hard to book a seat, Momofuku is here. Failing that, you should at least try the Messina gelato, unbelievably good.























The famed patisserie Adriano Zumbo is here as well. His shop is quirky, he has revolving small desserts much like the sushi revolving thing that you can pick and eat.






















Possibly catching Legally Blonde the musical sometime later in the week.




Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Sydney Day 2



Gee, this travel blogging is not exactly a lot of fun. Had to send photos from my I-phone (which does not take sufficiently good photos like the new Samsung phone) to my email before I could post about it. The first photo is the beautiful QVB, wonderfully restored by Ipoh Gardens, a fact not known by many people.

















The 3 levels huge Apple store on George Street, eternally packed. No, I did not buy the new mini I-pad. Tempted though.





Anyway, tried to do all my shopping needs in one afternoon. 
















Another mega store, Louis Vuitton, thankfully, no need to buy anything there for anybody (gulp).

The ravishingly beautiful and large Zara store.

So what did I buy? Stuff I couldn't get back home. Bought tons of stuff from Dymocks Bookstore.





 This one even our wonderful piracy industry did not put it in their list. Its probably the funniest series made in recent times. So glad to snare these two DVDs.



Yes, I have a strong penchant for horse racing and horse racing personalities and stories. More wonderful books to add to my reading list.

















Went to my usual pizza parlour, as long as they made a decent pizza, I always have my own alacarte order: tomato paste, cheese, pineapples, garlic, chilli oil and anchovies ... mamma mia!!!

















Took my pizza to Watson's Bay or better known as The Gap. There had been too many suicide attempts in the past that they had to put up fences and signs like this around the place.

















Anyone who was an overseas  student in Sydney for the past 30 years would have eaten at this place in Chinatown. Its called Minh Hai and they serve this huge crispy grilled maryland chicken with rice, sauce and soup. Nostalgia food.
  





















Towards the evening, ended at the only casino game I willingly play, Texas Holdem. At least we do not lost to the casino (they just take a cut of the pool) but to one another. Thats my table. Did OK, left after 3 hours, tired already. Yes, the table had 7 Asians and one gwailo.



Sunday, November 11, 2012

Sydney Day 1 (Morning/Noon)



Great smooth flight, nary a hitch, the winds were behind us all the way we made the trip in 6 hr 50 min instead of 8 hr, amazing. Taxi cab flag fall was at A$3.80 (RM12.50) and the 12km trip to Kings Cross cost A$52 (RM165). Nice...




















Now time to pick up my car rental. If you plan to drive, you should anyway, its brilliant and you cannot get a better deal than Bayswater Car Rental, the one with the "No Birds" tagline. Don't ask why they have that tagline. All in it only cost A$33 odd per day inclusive of insurance.


























The guy at the front desk was from Thailand, we chatted about Thai politics, and then gave me a really good deal. The car I have had JUST 12km on it, ...  it came in yesterday. Now I know what its like to be a high ranking UMNO-putra seeking out corporate deals from Ministry of Finance and EPU.




















Landed a bit too early to check in the hotel, so grabbed a hot ham and cheese croissant from Infinity Bakery @ Darlinghurst, plus a flat white and headed for Centennial Park, should be sparse this early in the morning. What better way to enjoy breakie than with the animals and fauna.

















Some friends commented why go to Sydney during summer ... well cause the weather's perfect, December/Jan are the worst months. Nov is still good, landed in the morning with 18C, sun shining bright, no sweating 24C in afternoon .... dipping to 18C by 6pm and probably 14C come midnight.


















Finally checked in, many wondered why I did not stay in the city. Its silly to stay in the city, parking is horrendous, probably cost you A$80 a day. I am staying at Coogee, Crowne Plaza, have a look at the view from my room, the  you'd understand why. Anyway, its just 20 minutes from the city.






Sydney Confidential

I will be making a quick trip to Sydney, flying off tonight. It was kinda last minute as I had not planned to do so. However, my closest auntie just had a minor operation so I thought it was best to make the trip with the stretch of holidays this coming week. 

I used to go to Sydney every year but haven't been doing so as my last trip was some 3 years ago. The majority of my relatives are in Sydney and most do come back to visit anyway. 

Another reason to get away was that I can sense too many things happening around me all at once, most of them good stuff. Its good to get away and stand back and refresh, to look at things anew. Things couldn't be better at Murasaki ts, while its hectic, and while waiting for the office to be fully renovated, its my last chance to get away for sometime as I will be pouring myself back into the mix later on.

I thought I will try to do a travel blog for the next 7 days for this trip, see whether I can cut it as a travel blogger for a change. I kinda know Sydney very well as I was driving a taxi during my university days, all in I studied and worked there for almost 10 years. 


Yes, the first question everyone ask when I say that is why did I come back. I was too young and while I love Sydney, its not my backyard. I like the transparent and incisive newspapers, but most of the news articles were not about the people I really cared about. Maybe in my naive ways, I wanted to see what I can do for my country. 

Realistically, the bulk of the businesses in developed countries like Australia belonged to the big corporations. It is not entrepreneurial enough. In Malaysia, you can come up with a good idea and find funding relatively easily. Heck, you may even get to have an appointment with the CEO of most top 100 companies in Malaysia after just one or two layers of contact and networking, something you cannot possibly dream of doing in Australia.

So, in my rush, I packed packs of heong paeng (from Ipoh) and two packs of freshly ground almond powder. Its my second time bringing over the powder, I always like the look on the faces of the Customs and Immigration officers when I show them the packets of powder, so blatant, looking so much like cocaine...lol.

Saturday, November 10, 2012

Why AES Should Be Halted


Getting to the Bottom of the Automatic Enrichment Scandal (AES)
by Koon Yew Yin

Slowly but surely, the ugly side of the AES is emerging and revealing itself to be yet another scam of the Barisan regime.  This one aimed at enrichment of a small group has been cleverly camouflaged in the name of public interest.

Fortunately, this time around the scope for undeserved enrichment is so overwhelming and the disregard for prudent principles of transparency and accountability so obvious that even some UMNO leaders are protesting.  These late protestors from Barisan are way behind the curve on the issue and are jumping on the bandwagon of opposition political and public protest to prevent damage to their own election prospects but it is an indicator of how unacceptable the current AES proposal is.   

I predict that the AES will be dead in the water before long.  But it is important that any suspension or abandonment of the system does not prevent the authorities and the public from having a full and open inquiry on how this particular scam has managed to get through all the responsible authorities, including the cabinet at the highest level. 

Such an inquiry is necessary to ensure that the full truth comes out, lessons are learnt and an appropriate speed deterrent system is implemented – a system that is not riddled with weaknesses and drawbacks, and does not enrich a few at the expense of the public.     

Who are responsible for the debacle?

Poor Minster of Transport, Kong Cho Ha must be having sleepless nights trying to defend the indefensible.  And he must be kicking himself for foolishly putting his job on the line in repeatedly pushing for the implementation of the system.

It is likely that Kong will be made the scapegoat for this debacle. But let us not forget that this scam was cooked up some time ago. Various other crooks, sorry - slip of the finger, I mean cooks – as yet unnamed – were involved in the preparation of this billion dollar dish.  According to federal estimates for the budget year 2013, the government expects an additional RM1.02 billion in revenue from AES enforcement – all this coming from the Malaysian road user.

The origins of the outsourcing of speed cameras and speeding tickets go back to the Abdullah Badawi administration – possibly during Dr. Ling Liong Sik’s time as Minister of Transport.  Apparently, despite objections from some ministers who argued that enforcement should remain within the government’s domain, the project was pushed through by the Transport Ministry during Chan Kong Choy’s tenure. 

After 5 years as the Transport Minister, Chan stepped down officially due to health reasons in the midst of the RM4.6 billion Port Klang Free Zone scandal. Following Kong Choy’s resignation, Ong Tee Keat was at the helm of the ministry, and the project was finalized during his time. Since Tee Keat has been dubbed Mr. Clean by his MCA supporters, he should come clean on the AES and provide an explanation on his role in it and answer the questions raised.
 
Why so much outrage?

Firstly, there is more than a strong whiff of cronyism about the project and the way in which it has been privatized which runs against principles of responsible government and common sense.

Allegations have been made that Ates Sdn Bhd and Beta Tegap Sdn Bhd which have been awarded the contract have strong political connections.  According to PKR assemblyman Chang Lih Kang, the major shareholder of Beta Tegap Sdn Bhd is the niece of a Johor Umno assemblyman and comes from a family of "renowned Umno political figures" whose parents were previously elected to the state legislative assembly.           

"With the extraordinary connection between the largest shareholder of Beta Tegap and Umno, another instance of sheer cronyism is evident. If this is not cronyism, how on earth does the government deem a dormant company without expertise in the related field is worth rewarding a lucrative AES contract?"  Chang asked at a recent press conference.

Secondly, the system comes embedded with an extremely lucrative revenue sharing arrangement to benefit the project concessionaires.  According to reports, the two companies can claim between RM600 million to RM800 million for the services and the equipment involved in installing 831 cameras in traffic hotspots nation-wide.

This disclosure has infuriated members of the public who strongly support road safety but are concerned at the opaqueness of the implementation process and are suspicious that the main purpose appears to be to benefit various cronies.

Claim for AES Compensation Coming Up Next

The two firms awarded the contract to implement the enforcement system claim to have spent between RM300 million and RM400 million each to set up and operate the system.  If the system is to be abandoned, they will insist on being compensated for their expenses to date. 

But how believable are their estimates of expenditure?   One skeptic has worked out in great detail the expenses involved in the establishment of the AES.  According to him a total of $24 million would be more than adequate in setting up the company, main office, staffing , maintenance and vehicles; establishing a roving maintenance team at 8 locations; setting up the server, monitoring and control system; and purchasing cameras for one year’s operation (see http://unofficialversion.wordpress.com/ for the full breakdown ) 
As a long time engineer and business man, I find the breakdown of expenses provided by the skeptic credible and believable and the concessionaires’ estimates incredible and unbelievable. 

Should Compensation be Paid

We can be sure that the two companies will have insisted on full compensation clauses built into the contract should the Government back out. They will have the paper evidence to show that they have spent hundreds of millions in setting up the system.  

So it looks like either way – whether the AES is implemented or not - the two companies could be laughing all the way to the bank with their bloated claims.

There is only one way to stop this daylight robbery.  This is for the Malaysian public to kick up the biggest fuss possible and to demand that the full truth of the Automatic Enrichment Scandal - including its real costs – emerge before any compensation is to be paid.      


Monday, November 5, 2012

Monday Musings.



Very soon the uncertainty as to who will guide America to bankruptcy will be over.  Some pundits are calling for a win for Romney and in the support of their prediction, they are showing the strength of the sectors which are supposed to be Republican friendly.  I suppose there is confirmation bias everywhere. I am sure Democrats are seeing signs of their victory as well. Irrespective of whoever wins, the market’s path has already been defined. If I may draw your attention to the fact that despite the sell- off of last Friday, the lows of September 26th is still intact. SPX cash is grinding up and will most likely continue to grind up for till Op.Ex.

While we have an initial sell signal (not confirmed) the indices are oversold on s short term basis and odds are high that we will see a bounce.  We do not have a negative divergence yet for calling the top but we are coming close. The following chart shows the SPX position short term.
(H/T Lance Roberts).
Another 50-60 points melt up in the next 7-10 trading sessions are quite likely and possible but I am not risking my money to chase it.

NYSE Bullish Percent Index is showing a topping pattern.

As you can see, it takes time for this divergence to play out and therefore do not expect indices to roll over tomorrow. But warning signs are there.

While I am expecting a correction, I am not looking for the end of the world here, not yet. I expect a correction in the magnitude of 15%-20% between Mid-November to Mid-December.  If we get that, it will be time to get long again. And I have decided to stay out of Nat.Gas till this big correction plays out. The time to go long commodities will come by end of the year and that includes precious metal as well.

So right now I am in cash and cushy. I am not chasing the upside because I am not sure how far it will go. And it is better to wait out 7-10 trading sessions than to suffer heartburn.  Hope you guys are keeping your powder dry and doing your research.

Thanks for sharing my thoughts. Please remember to disable Ad block. We still have in-line text Ads and of course Amazon link, should you decide to shop Amazon in the coming holiday season.

Thursday, November 1, 2012

One Swallow Of Fall.



While it is true that one swallow does not make a summer, we have been calling for this bullish action for quite a while. It will be foolish to say that from now on prices will go up and up but it does look like the making of a short term bottom which the cycles have been calling for. SPX closed above 1425 which earlier was acting as a resistance. Let us see whether it holds tomorrow. Only folks who seem to be unhappy today are from our beloved rant blog. I shudder to think about the plight of anyone who was short after reading / listening to those unending rants. Few more times like these and when the time comes to really short, folks won’t have any money left to trade. Only GS and JPM will be able to short the market then. Brilliant plan indeed!

Tomorrow is a NFP day. Few have any idea if at all about how good or bad it will be but in reality, it does not matter. Most likely, markets will go up anyway to test the highs in the next few days/weeks, with occasional dips in between. So it does not matter if tomorrow is red or range bound, which is very likely, so long the red is not huge red. Only fly in the ointment today was that US$ was higher which resulted in gold and silver selling off from their morning highs.

But the silver miners like SLW and CDE have started to breakout even in this weak market.  I think both gold and silver will also move higher and test their respective high of the year. And all these should happen in the next two weeks. We will have to wait and see if gold is able to break through $ 1800. If not, we will get out of PM sector for a month and re- enter by mid or end December.

The next two weeks will possibly be good for swing traders. So far as investors are concerned, it would be a good idea to reduce the long positions on any strength and reduce the risk. And the risks are real. The fiscal cliff will not be sorted out before next year and there is no clear indication as to who is going to win the election. These are known unknowns and in times like these, cash is king. 

But from the swing trade point of view, I would probably buy out of money November calls for SPX that are cheap and get out by 12th-14th November.  But everyone has own style of trading and no one size fits all. So please do your due diligence.

Today QQQ was up almost 1.5% while Apple was up only 0.2%. Yesterday I wrote that Apple most likely has bottomed short term. If that is indeed the case and Apple is to test its 50 DMA it would mean a move of about 7%. That would definitely positively impact the Qs and other indices. The last high was on September 14 which was almost 45 days back and yet we had a tiny 5% correction. So we did not miss much by staying in the sideline. Also in all of those 45 days, we had two up moves and three down moves without any clear direction.  I had suggested not to short and hopefully it would have saved you some money.

Thanks for sharing my thoughts on the market. I have been busy with studies and waiting for the market to show its hand. So far things appear to be on script. I hope it will be interesting going forward and you will be able to make some much needed money.